Tag Archives: Refugees Impact

The Long-Term Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy (FEM43-05 report)

An input–output approach (IO) is used to estimate the economic contribution of Syrian refugees linked to (1) their access to Turkish labour market and (2) the new investment generated by Syrians’ capital through saving within the country. By using this methodological approach, we are explicitly considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, enabling us to expand the focus of a classic impact study.

Results for 2017 (short term impact)
The total value-added impact generated by the occupations of Syrian refugees in the Turkish economy was an estimated 27.2 billion TL at the end of 2017, representing 1.96% of total Turkish GDP.
Production effect is estimated at 1.51% of GDP for 2017. This impact supposes an increase in production of 30.59 billion TL across different sectors, generating 20.9 billion TL of value added.
• Induced demand effect accounts for the rest of global impact, for 0.45% of GDP in 2017. This induced demand effect implies new production estimated at around 11.7 billion TL, generating 6.2 billion TL in value added. This induced demand effect is essentially produced by direct consumption and investment of Syrian population; the direct effect is estimated at 0.3% of GDP for 2017.
• All in all, native employment induced by Syrian economic integration (from both production and demand effects) was an estimated 132,454 persons in 2017.
• The direct impact of Syrian economic integration is spread unevenly across different sectors, reflecting the greater or lesser presence of Syrian workers in the production effect and specific consumption and investment patterns.
• Details provided by the simulation schema support the idea that enhancing employment opportunities for refugees by improving their education and skills, promoting entrepreneurial capacity and providing work permits in well-targeted sectors will further increase refugees’ contribution to economic growth.

FEMISE MED BRIEF no7 : The Effects of Syrian Refugees on the Labor Markets of Host Countries

The FEMISE Policy Brief series MED BRIEF aspires to provide Forward Thinking for the EuroMediterranean region. The briefs contain succinct, policy-oriented analysis of relevant EuroMed issues, presenting the views of FEMISE researchers and collaborators to policy-makers. 

The seventh issue of MED BRIEF “The Effects of Syrian Refugees on the Labor Markets of Host Middle Eastern and European Countries” is available by clicking here.

Dr. Roby Nathanson, MACRO Center, Israel

Since 2011, over 5.3 million refugees made their way from Syria to hosting Middle Eastern end European countries. Middle Eastern countries that absorbed the majority of refugees are Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. In Europe, Germany and Sweden absorbed the largest number of Syrian refugees. This large number of refugees brought the question of their impact on wage growth and unemployment rates to the center of political discourse. This Brief examines this impact.

Dr. Khalid Sekkat, Univ. de Bruxelles, Belgium

It has been found that except for Jordan, the refugees had no impact on the growth in wages and in none of the examined countries the refugees had any impact on unemployment rates. Therefore, it is recommended, among other things, to remove refugee-specific barriers, especially in sectors that experience shortage of workers. It is also recommended to provide training for refugees to match their skills and to use this ‘feared competition’ to upgrade the skills of the national employees. It will also be important to raise public awareness on the contributions of these refugees to the national markets.



The list of FEMISE MED BRIEFS is available here.

The policy brief has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union within the context of the FEMISE program. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.