Summary :

Abstract

As global decarbonization intensifies, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies face mounting pressure to decouple their development from oil dependence. This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of green employment across the region, analyzing longitudinal data from Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, and Tunisia. By adapting a skill-greenness classification derived from the U.S. O*NET database to local labor market surveys, we utilize both binary prevalence indicators and continuous task-intensity measures to map the regional green landscape.

The findings reveal that while 17% to 29% of occupations in these countries contain at least one green task, the actual green task intensity remains low, consistently falling below 7%. A significant demographic divide characterizes the green transition. Contrary to earlier estimations, men are two to three times more likely to hold green jobs than women, who are largely sequestered in “grey” sectors such as education and health. Furthermore, a distinct age gap exists; while prime-age adults are more likely to hold green positions, youth are disproportionately concentrated in “brown” or polluting occupations. Our analysis also uncovers that informal jobs exhibit a higher prevalence of both green and brown tasks compared to formal employment, suggesting that much of the region’s environmental labor occurs without social protections. These results indicate that the green transition in the MENA region currently risks exacerbating existing inequalities. To ensure an inclusive shift, we provide policy recommendations focused on greening female-dominated sectors, aligning vocational training with green technical needs for youth, and formalizing the informal green workforce.

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