2007 FEMISE Report on the EuroMediterranean Partnership

Femise Report on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 2007

(February 2008)

Rapport Annuel 2007

Rapport Annuel 2007

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Introductory Chapter:

a glance at the economic and social performance of the Mediterranean Partner Countries

Some Stylized facts

A trade liberalization of goods that has clearly been beneficial

A beginning of convergence with the EU in terms of per capita income

Progress to be made to meet employment needs

A pattern of growth that requires an increase in investment rates and productivity to ensure its sustainability

A macroeconomic equilibrium that is currently maintained but threatened by inflationary pressure

An international trade position of the MPs market with deterioration in manufactured goods trade, a slight disengagement vis-à-vis the EU and a limited development of the intra-branch trade

Ongoing reforms in all domains but a hierarchy needs to be specified

Chapter I- The Challenge Of Employment In The Southern Mediterranean Countries

I. Introduction

II. The Nature Of The Employment Challenge And Demographic Trends

II.1 Stylized facts : 3 factors of tension on the labor markets

II.2 Necessary job creation in the region in the coming 15 years

II.3 Are the actual trends compatible with the needs?

II.4 Can migration offer a solution that could ease a «euromed labour market»?

III. The Root Causes Of The Problem

III.1 The growth-employment relationship in the MPs

III.2 Adequacy of domestic and foreign investment

III.3 The mismatch between education outcomes and labour market demand

III.4 Widespread informality

IV. Competitivness, Openess And Labor Market Policies

IV.1 The compatibility of the pattern of specialization and employment with openness in the MPs

IV.2 Labour cost and salaries

IV.3 Do Institutions and policies of the MPs optimize the benefits openness, both on the macro and employment levels?

V. Meeting The Employment Challenge: Key Issues Identified

V.1 The need for an overall strategy

V.2 Encouraging the women to take part in the labour market

V.3 Reducing the size of the informal sector

V.4 Improving the employment of a better educated population

V.5 Coordinating cooperative migration schemes

Chapter II-Liberalisation of services

I. Framework for Services Liberalization

I.1. Network Industries

I.2. Liberalization Of Banking Services

I.3. Maritime Freight Transportation

I.4. Liberalization Of Other Services In The Eu

II. The Role of Services as the Factor of Integration of Euromed

II.1. The importance of services and network sectors in five MENA countries

II.2. Services liberalization in the MENA countries

III. Implications of Liberalization of Trade in Services and Network Industries

III.1. Quantifying Barriers To Trade In Services And Network Industries

III.2. Implications Of Liberalization


Annex 1. Macroeconomic evolution of the 10 MPs

Annex 2. Multicriteria analysis methodology

Annex 3. Soucres of growth in the 10 MPs

Annex 4. Total Population and the evolution of the Working Population

Annex 5: Net migration flows in the EU-27 (per 1,000)

Annex 6: Migrations stock and flows in MPs

Annex 7: Remittances & FDI as % of GDP in MPs

Annex 8: The equilibrium mechanism of the current account for the 10 MPs

Annex 9 : Unit Value of Export, productivity and wages per capita

Annex 10a: Trade-policy reform progress, 2000-06

Annex 10b: Tariff and nontariff protection in the region, 2000 (or closest year available)

Annex 11: Labour Policies oriented to encourage Women participation