Libéralisation du compte de capital et cadres de gestion macroéconomique comparés: Indicateurs de mesure et implications sectorielles et de politique monétaire en Tunisie

FEM33-03 | March 2010

Title

« Libéralisation du compte de capital et cadres de gestion macroéconomique comparés: Indicateurs de mesure et implications sectorielles et de politique monétaire en Tunisie »

By

Sami Mouley, Université de Tunis, Tunisie; Rafik Baccouche, Université de Tunis, El Manar, Tunisie

Contributeurs

Philippe Gilles, Université du Sud, Toulon-Var, France; Nicolas Huchet, Université du Sud, Toulon-Var, France; Nicolas Péridy, Université de Nantes, France; Cécile Bastidon, Université du Sud, Toulon-Var, France; Hajer Zarrouk, Université de Tunis, El Manar, Tunisie.

Note :

This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union within the context of the FEMISE program. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.

Summary :

South-mediterranean countries run towards commercial and capital account liberalization. Especially, the relative strength of the Tunisian economy face to the recent crisis seems to bear the current strategy followed by authorities. Further, the identification of priorities and the sequencing of reforms (both in terms of change controls loosening and – its corollary – full convertibility) are pivotal for the process’ progress, that is, to get international attractiveness, international financial markets access, and risks diversification’ scope, without banking turmoil or currency crisis. Even though no consensus arises, theoretical and empirical literature first allows identifying the common principles for the Tunisian macroeconomic guidance, and then permits to resolve measure problems that can distort simulations’ results (or their reading). We then test the strengthness of the economy face to new financial liberalization measures, in a monetary way and in a real way (sectorial disaggregation). Beyond the need for implementing reforms, we demonstrate that the macroeconomic situation yet permits to loosen capital account restrictions. More accurately, such changes should first concern the tradable goods sector (namely manufacturing, competitive at a global scale and powerful for employment at a domestic scale) and the services sector (likely to draw many foreign direct investments, as transports and telecommunications).